Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for EMNATI-22 in Madagascar from 16 Feb 2022 18:00 UTC to 21 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for EMNATI-22

in Madagascar

21 Feb 2022 06 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EMNATI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2022-000175-MDG
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	2.2 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	204 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (22 Feb 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 22 Feb 2022 06:00 - 22 Feb 2022 18:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Overall	204 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.6 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	176	1.3 million	No people	Mauritius
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	185	2.1 million	No people	Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	167	10.4 million	80 thousand	Madagascar
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	148	14.9 million	220 thousand	Madagascar
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	176	17.7 million	2.3 million	Madagascar
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	157	19.1 million	2.9 million	Madagascar
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	167	16.2 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	194	20.2 million	4.9 million	Madagascar
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	213	19.3 million	3.2 million	Madagascar
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	204	19.5 million	4.3 million	Madagascar
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	194	19.7 million	2.6 million	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	16 Feb 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-14.1, 68.4
2	17 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-14.2, 67.8
3	17 Feb 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.9, 64.2
4	18 Feb 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 63
5	18 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	-14.4, 61.3
6	19 Feb 2022 00:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16, 59.5
7	19 Feb 2022 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	-16.4, 58.1
8	19 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 2	157	no people	460000 people	-16.9, 57.1
9	20 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	-17.2, 55.9
10	20 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	120000 people	-17.6, 54.6
11	21 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	185	no people	4.5 million people	-17.9, 53.5
11	21 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	14.2 million people	-18.7, 51.9
11	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	1.1 million people	16.2 million people	-19.9, 50.2
11	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Category 3	185	2.4 million people	17.6 million people	-21.3, 48.4	Madagascar
11	23 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	10.4 million people	-22.8, 46.6	Madagascar
11	24 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2 million people	-26.2, 43.1
11	25 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-29.8, 41.6
11	26 Feb 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-32.1, 41.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toamasina	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar
Toliara	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Mahanoro	VVB	5	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4400
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mahanoro	MGVVB	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Savana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 22 Feb 2022 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (219 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 21 Feb 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Savana	Madagascar	0.7
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.7
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Mananjary	Madagascar	0.7
	22 Feb 2022 18:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.6
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Marohita	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 23:00	Mangatsiatra	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Manakara	Madagascar	0.5
	22 Feb 2022 19:00	Anakitaina	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Tataho	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambahy	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 21:00	Itenina	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Loharano	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.4
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 20:00	Pakapakaina	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 17:00	Mahela	Madagascar	0.4
	22 Feb 2022 16:00	Andranomahitsy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Tanilahy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Androka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 15:00	Ambohitsara	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 14:00	Anasindrano	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampatsinakoho	Madagascar	0.3
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Belefotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	22 Feb 2022 22:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Manantenina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 13:00	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Ankaramanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Sarahanonoy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Bemahala	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Esama	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Besasavy	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Antseranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Tulear	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Feb 2022 05:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Mahanoro	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 14:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 14:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 15:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Vodivola	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodiharina	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Amboananto	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 04:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Manombo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 00:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 10:00	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Sainte-Luce	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Itampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	22 Feb 2022 02:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Anakao	Madagascar	0.2
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Soalara	Madagascar	0.2
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambohidara	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Marokoky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 05:00	Vatomirindry	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 05:00	Ambanihazo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Antsotso Avaratra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Lavavolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 23:00	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Talaky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 21:00	Ankazoabo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 03:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 03:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambohitrabo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Ambatomilo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Andalambezo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 02:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 02:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambazoamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ampasimpolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 14:00	Faux-Cap	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ampary	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 09:00	Antanandava	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Maroloha	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Miary	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Anja-Belitsaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 13:00	Andavadoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 06:00	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 09:00	Androrangambo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Baly	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 11:00	Ambazoa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Ankazomanitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Beaniky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 10:00	Esanta	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 12:00	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Tolanaro	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Feb 2022 02:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 03:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 02:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 01:00	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 17:00	Belalanda	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 08:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 08:00	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 07:00	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 09:00	Ankilihago	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Elanja	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Belay	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Analapetsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Mitriaky	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 08:00	Amberio	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankiririsa	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 18:00	Ankilimivony	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Besamata	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Behazomby	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 20:00	Efoetsy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 07:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	21 Feb 2022 22:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	22 Feb 2022 01:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 16:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 19:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 23:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	23 Feb 2022 22:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.